Business Insights | The Silent Driver: E-commerce and the 3PL market

The demand shift

Pure-play online retailers took 31% of UK Big Box take-up in 2020 and 40% in 2021. Between Q1 2025 and Q3 2026, that share fell to just 10%. Over the same 21 months, 3PL operators accounted for 14.5m sq ft, or 34% of the market, making them the largest single source of demand. On those headline figures, it would be easy to conclude that e-commerce is no longer the main driver of the market.

Figure 1: UK big box take-up by occupier type, 2019 to Q3 2026 (%)

Behind the headlines

Our analysis of Big Box deals to 3PL occupiers since Q1 2025 shows that 59% of that take-up (c.8.5 million sq ft), supports direct to consumer e-commerce, either through dedicated contracts or multi-user distribution. Consider this in addition to the ‘pure-play’ figure (where an e-commerce occupier has taken a lease directly), and the e-commerce share reaches 30% of take-up across that period; three times the headline figure.

Figure 2: Share of take-up, Q1 2025 to Q3 2026 (%)

Why 3PLs hold the demand

The online retail landscape has changed. A third-party logistics provider lets smaller brands reach their customers without having to make a real estate commitment of their own, letting them rent capacity by-the-pallet instead of by-the-building. Partnering with a specialist lowers the barrier to entry, broadening the pool of sellers and further increasing demand on the 3PLs. The same logic applies at the top of the market, where there is little to be gained by direct involvement, some of the biggest e-commerce occupiers are choosing to outsource specific elements of their operations.

Our view

With European online sales set to reach EUR 636 billion this year, above the 2021 record, and UK e-commerce penetration at around 30%, the structural case for e-commerce space remains intact. The limit, as ever, is the economy. Even with the IMF lifting its UK growth forecast to 1.3%, we expect that modest growth will continue to moderate overall take-up.

For landlords and developers, the lesson is to understand where the demand really originates, not just the sector-level summaries. Just because e-commerce demand now arrives under a 3PL name, it does not mean that it is not the driving force. For occupiers, outsourcing has become a mainstream route to scale. E-commerce still sets the pace of the market: it just no longer announces itself.