Since our last EVM (European Valuation Monitor) analysis, an unprecedented set of circumstances has evolved, the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), declared by the World Health Organisation as a “Global Pandemic” on 11 March. Whilst this started as health crisis it has also shocked global economies. Market activity has been impacted in many sectors especially Retail. On the Quarter, negative capital value performance has been recorded in Europe in Q1 2020. The “All Property” index moved down mainly driven by the Retail sector followed by the Office sector. On a trailing 12 month basis (TTM), the “All property” values increased over the 12 months. The disruption caused by the lockdown and social distancing measures further accentuated the pressure on Retail. The Shopping Center sub-sector disclosed the weakest negative value performance. Industrial was the strongest performer over the 12 months. At the “All property” TTM level, most countries and regions saw positive capital value performance albeit at a slower pace than 2019. The UK was notable as one region where capital values remained negative in 2020 vs Q1 2019. The CEE region experienced capital value growth at a faster pace than the previous year 2019. Despite a slightly slower pace than in Q1 2020, TTM capital value growth of the industrial sector still remained at a reasonable level. The Capital value growth of the Office sector performed well in Q1 2020 vs Q1 2019, helping to positively maintain the “All Property” index.
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