Our latest report: Recovery Tracker, The Operational Real Estate Market, brings together a selection of economic, mobility and trading market data to assess how recovery in this market is progressing.

For some of these indicators we are beginning to see the early shoots of recovery, but as we continue to track activity monthly we hope to identify further signs of progress.

Key points include:

  • Consumer Confidence - In most EU countries consumer confidence had begun to wane toward the end of 2019 but was accelerated as the potential impact of COVID became more apparent. France and Germany both saw upturns in June which continued into July. Spain still lags the group (having been the most confident in July 2019) with the UK has showing the highest bounce in the last month.
  • Modes of Transport – As lockdown measures ease, UK residents have been quicker to get back into their cars (or indeed walking) than returning to public transport due to social distancing rules and infection concerns. In London, driving has not returned to normal levels but in the rest of the UK it is trending higher than earlier in the year.
  • Consumer visits - Visitors to Retail and Leisure venues are still well below previous levels in the UK. The UK remains 37% below pre-COVID levels but has shown the steadiest of visitor number increases.
  • Restaurant Customer Numbers - In London levels are still below 30% of previous levels but the picture across the UK as whole is a little better at c50%.
  • Hotels - London occupancy (almost never below 70%) and the UK Provinces fell precipitously in March and April 2020. The impact on rate has been more muted (hotels agreed a discounted rate with the UK Government for healthcare workers for instance) and the key test will be as occupancy picks up, how quickly rate recovers.