Despite continued lockdown restrictions, GDP edged up slightly in February, increasing by 0.4% compared with a 2.2% fall in January.  As several indicators point to continued improvement in March we expect overall GDP in Q1 to fall by just 2%. A fraction of the 19% fall during the first lockdown. The prospect of a consumer boom following the full lifting of restrictions provides optimism for a strong recovery in the second half of the year.

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