Much has been written about the scale of Governments' policy response to the COVID-19 crisis, and the impact this will have on public debt levels. A consensus is emerging that debt:GDP will naturally fall as long as the cost of servicing debt is kept low – crucially, beneath the rate of economic growth – which will allow Government finances to normalise over the medium term.

 

This paper examines risks to this outlook, and in particular the impact that this and alternative scenarios will have on real estate investment over the coming decade.